Omicron is here: So keep calm and carry on with covid shots
At least were learning. Remember when the early reaction to the outbreak of a deadly virus in China was to discourage people from changing travel plans? South Africas government didnt sit on information about a worrying new variant of Sars-CoV-2, which the World Health Organization (WHO) has dubbed Omicron. It didnt downplay it. On the contrary, it shared detailed slides so that countries could develop their responses. Now its up to governments and local authorities to adapt to a fast-changing viral picture � one that remains blurry in places.
Genomic sequencing of infections in South Africa found that the variant B.1.1.529 had many more mutations than Delta. More worrying, some of the mutations occur in the area of the spike protein that is targeted by antibodies. That could mean existing vaccines will be less effective, information on which is still awaited.
The WHO has designated Omicron a �variant of concern", which signifies that it contains genetic changes that are known to affect transmissibility, disease severity or evade vaccines and therapies.
Omicrons transmissibility does seem very high. The WHO was alerted on 24 November and says the variant was identified from a specimen collected on 9 November. It is already in evidence in most South African provinces, along with Botswana, and cases have been found in several other parts of the world, including Europe and Asia. While South African officials are unhappy with it, travel restrictions are the obvious first response. The UK government announced a temporary travel ban on several countries last week. However, when a flight from Gauteng�the South African province that includes Johannesburg� arrived in London on Friday, some 300 passengers were released into the wild with only an advisory message to self-isolate and take some tests. This counts as an own goal.
Meanwhile, Israel imposed new travel restrictions, quarantines and PCR testing at its borders. The EU recommended an �emergency brake" on travel from South Africa. These restrictions merely buy a little time to map out the next steps. If scientists confirm that Omicron can indeed escape the defences of current vaccines, then the race is on to develop better defences.
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Pfizer says it can deliver a vaccine that would counter the new variant within 100 days of sequencing. Thats fast. Regulators like the US Food and Drug Administration are likely to speed approval processes for vaccines that are just tweaked for new variants. Pfizer estimates it could make 4 billion doses in the first 12 months. Another 8 billion doses of the Moderna and AstraZeneca vaccines are likely to be available in a similar time frame.
Even so, testing will need to be done on the updated vaccine. Getting it into enough arms will take many months, even with delivery systems primed by the current vaccine roll-out.
Other lines of defence will be important, too. There are questions about whether the new variant may change the effectiveness of monoclonal antibody treatments, proteins that attach to a specific target in the spike protein of the virus and can be a key tool in treating early infection and even as a prophylaxis in those vulnerable to serious covid illness.
